TotalEnergies has published the sixth edition of its Energy Outlook report, presenting three distinct scenarios for the global energy landscape up to 2050. This comprehensive analysis aims to foster public discourse on the future of energy and the transition toward more sustainable systems. The three scenarios — Trends, Momentum, and Rupture — illustrate varied pathways, each with differing assumptions about energy demand, technological progress, and policy impact on global warming by the end of the century.
The 2024 TotalEnergies Energy Outlook in Detail
Three Key Scenarios for Energy and Climate
1 – Trends: This new scenario, introduced for the first time in 2024, charts the trajectory based on current policies and technological advancements through 2030. This scenario assumes moderate decarbonization efforts, with an expected temperature rise of 2.6-2.7°C by 2100. The Trends scenario reflects the gradual shift towards renewables like solar and wind, the rise of electric vehicles (EVs), and increased use of heat pumps, particularly in China. However, infrastructure and geopolitical barriers limit the speed and scale of deployment.
2 – Momentum: This scenario envisions a more ambitious path where countries committed to net-zero by 2050 and China make significant strides in reducing emissions. Key measures include extensive electrification, a phase-out of coal, and a reduced reliance on fossil fuels. In this model, low-carbon fuels such as decarbonized hydrogen and sustainable marine and aviation fuels become more widespread. Momentum forecasts a temperature rise of 2.2-2.3°C by 2100, indicating a partial success in limiting warming but falling short of the Paris Agreement targets.
3 – Rupture: Designed to achieve a temperature rise well below 2°C, this scenario proposes a transformative shift, requiring extensive global collaboration and a rapid scaling of renewable technologies. The Rupture scenario involves an 80% increase in solar and wind capacity by 2030 in India and the Global South, paired with advanced decarbonization measures across all regions. If realized, Rupture would achieve a temperature increase of 1.7-1.8°C by 2100, staying in line with the more ambitious climate goals.
Key Takeaways from TotalEnergies’ Energy Outlook 2024
- Energy Access as a Development Imperative: Access to affordable and reliable energy remains a crucial factor in improving living standards globally. However, energy access remains unequal, with around 4.5 billion people still lacking sufficient energy for adequate healthcare, education, and development.
- Progress Over the Last Two Decades:
- The global energy transition has gained momentum.
- Most energy demand growth has come from rising living standards, particularly in India and China.
- The U.S. shale boom has reshaped energy dynamics, influencing supply and prices globally.
- Key technologies, such as solar power and EVs, have reached maturity and are now scalable solutions.
- Looking Ahead to 2050:
- Trends: Following current policies, this pathway would lead to a temperature increase of 2.6-2.7°C by 2100.
- Momentum: Based on more aggressive decarbonization, this scenario would limit warming to 2.2-2.3°C.
- Rupture: Focused on a robust, collective push for sustainability, this scenario would achieve warming of 1.7-1.8°C, aligned with keeping global temperature rise below 2°C.
- Green Electrification as the Energy Transition Core: Electrification through renewable sources reduces emissions and improves energy efficiency, potentially reducing energy losses from 60% to approximately 40% in the Rupture scenario. This shift will play a central role in achieving decarbonization goals.
- A Pragmatic Approach to Achieving Rupture: Moving from Trends to Rupture would require prioritizing global access to low-carbon technologies. Key measures include:
- Replacing fossil fuels with electricity in vehicles and heating systems worldwide.
- Accelerating renewable energy deployment to replace coal in electricity generation.
- Focusing on reducing methane emissions from fossil fuel extraction.
- Policy Support and Infrastructure Investment: Achieving the goals outlined in Rupture would necessitate coordinated global action, including:
- Allocating subsidies and mandates based on technology maturity and cost efficiency to garner public support.
- Investing in grid infrastructure to support the transition to renewable energy.
- Promoting international cooperation and creating financial mechanisms for the Global South to access cost-effective, sustainable technologies.
The Way Forward: A Balancing Act
Aurélien Hamelle, TotalEnergies’ Managing Director of Strategy & Sustainability, stated, “To keep pace with the growth in energy demand essential for improving living standards in emerging regions, while also reducing greenhouse gas emissions, public policies and energy stakeholders must prioritize mature, affordable low-carbon technologies and collaborate to deploy them globally. This is the path to achieving economic and social progress alongside the acceleration of the energy transition.”
About TotalEnergies
TotalEnergies is a global, integrated energy company with a mission to make energy more reliable, affordable, and sustainable. Operating in around 120 countries, TotalEnergies is committed to driving sustainability in its projects and operations and ensuring access to cleaner energy for people worldwide. With a workforce of over 100,000, TotalEnergies is dedicated to supporting the global transition to greener energy sources.
Source TotalEnergies